By now if you’ve been following you know the drill, and if you’re new to the post I’m guessing you’ll get a sense of what we’re trying to do in this post pretty quickly. After a week off, we’re back with our Week 7 NFL Takeaways; twitter style.
In short… quick hits of subjects of interest that you may have missed from the weekend that was. You won’t necessarily see headlines or big statistical outputs that are likely covered elsewhere… just some moments of intrigue from the weekend that was. I’m big into numbers, particularly snap counts and relative target share, but you won’t see an overwhelming amount of that here as there is lots of time to collect that data through the week. You’re just getting some unfiltered thoughts to help you guide your lineups for the week ahead.
Keenan Allen one of many options; warrants a downgrade
Keenan Allen went 5/5 on his targets for 72 yards, and led all receivers in opportunities (Austin Ekeler had 7 looks), however his demeanor in the second half suggested he wasn’t getting any looks. Clearly frustrated, Allen was indeed winning his matchups but Rivers continued to look in other directions. The short summary here is that, unlike last year, Rivers has other targets he trusts at WR with Tyrell Williams putting together another strong campaign and Mike Williams developing. I’m still into Allen as a player and a fantasy contributor, but his upside remains limited as long as he’s facing double teams and the others are making plays. In daily, I’m generally fading him.
Me every week when I start Keenan Allen in fantasy https://t.co/ok38OWJusL
— Riley McAtee (@Riley_McAtee) October 21, 2018
Allen knows he erred in his attitude, but I don’t expect the situation to change. If he’s frustrated now after a breakout ’17 campaign he’ll need to stay focused to continue to contribute for fantasy gamers and the Chargers alike.
Apologies to the Team, Philly Phil, and the Pylon! Emotions got the best of me today. I’ll be better! Great team win boys!!! 5-2 #S13Y
— Keenan Allen (@Keenan13Allen) October 21, 2018
Andrew Luck: Good to Go
Andrew Luck didn’t get asked to do a whole heck of a lot against the Bills (17/23, 156)– as you probably expected – but he managed to produce another strong fantasy line. In fact, he threw 3+ (4) TDs for the fourth consecutive week. That coincides with, essentially, the time-frame that I wrote him off as still injured.
Real world prospects aside, Luck has been making due with a depleted WR corps all season and looks every bit the part of a fantasy producer. A lot of owners likely drafted him as a second QB this year. If so, I’d look at shopping other options and put my faith in Luck the rest of the way.
Andrew Luck is on FIRE
Week 4: 4 TDs
Week 5: 3 TDs
Week 6: 4 TDs
Week 7: 4 TDs
Next up …. the Raiders
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 21, 2018
Michael Gallup showing promise; just don’t over react
Michael Gallup ran a great route on his first half touchdown, and is very likely the Cowboys receiver you want to own moving forward.
Perhaps it’s Michael Gallup day? Played a ton more last week and is up to 3-81-1 after that long TD. Dare I say he’s entering the flex discussion…
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 21, 2018
But, just as Dak Prescott fantasy owners had a lump in their collective throats when Tony Romo oversold thoughts of his concussion after a headlong dive in the first quarter he likely over did it in his praise of Gallup. Or, failing that, just don’t let his enthusiasm about Gallup the player convince you he’s worth breaking the bank for as a fantasy asset. At the end of the day, he was the third most targeted Cowboys receiver in this game and while his playing time is increasing in recent weeks, there is no guarantee of fantasy relevance for season long gamers.
At this stage of the season, feel free to spend up to 15-20% of your remaining FAAB if you’re WR needy. Just don’t roll him into the weekly lineup just yet.
Kenyan Drake still splitting reps…
Kenyan Drake made the plays in the run game for the Dolphins this week in a soft matchup, but if I’m a Drake owner I wouldn’t let a reasonable line obscure the fact that he’s still the second man in the rotation. After a tough OT game against the Bears last week the 35-year-old Frank Gore led the committee with 10 carries (for 29 yards) vs. Drake’s six (for 72, and a score). Drake was targeted a healthy eight times as the team was in comeback mode late in the game, but if Gore held a 10:6 carry advantage this week given the extra snaps he logged a week ago I’d expect that to continue in the weeks ahead.
In games where you expect them to trail, the script from this week may well become the norm and tilt in Drake’s favour, but I’m not sure I want to be tied to single digit carries with hopes that he breaks a long run on a regular basis. If you can dangle this particular carrot after a long run and a score, I’d advise you to see what is out there.
Unless, of course, Adam Gase is using his eyes:
Kenyan Drake goes bursting down the sideline for six!
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 21, 2018
I kid, actually, on above. Or at least, I don’t want to be a victim of joining the hyperbole of the masses. We’re all chasing stat lines in fantasy, but a lot more goes into workload and snap count distribution than long runs and TDs. I’ve observed more cases of armchair coaching as it relates to RB workload specifically this season than in recent memory… and… in short, I won’t be pretending I know better than a HC any time soon. Though, I’ll admit, there was plenty of deserved chatter about the relative production of Drake and his backfield opponent Kerryon Johnson in this game, relative to their peers.
Alvin Kamara back on track
A lot of Alvin Kamara owners were feeling anxious coming into the week after watching Mark Ingram dominate the workload in his first game back from suspension. Many, feeling like our friend Ivan here:
— Ivan Abrahim (@MrNoMa_am) October 21, 2018
Heading into the game, I’d have voted that the Ravens had a good shot of shutting him down at home as well. Given that I watched that defense swam the Titans live last week and that the forecast was for windy day that would lead to a grind it out, between the tackles day. But, when all was said and done, Kamara found the endzone and finished with a 17-12 carry edge with both backs picking up a pair of receptions. There isn’t a whole lot that you can make of that, necessary, and Ingram’s return necessarily puts a ceiling on Kamara’s weekly production but I liked seeing Kamara get fed the ball in a ‘traditional’ Ingram matchup. 19 touches is plenty for him to make an RB1 fantasy living on. Take your fingers off the panic button, folks.