Oct 12

NFL Start and Sit Week 6

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I like to think that our readers have a certain degree of fantasy acuity before they arrive, so my hope is that this start and sit list – which avoids the obvious – will be useful for all of you. I’ve made my opinions on start/sit implicitly known via my weekly rankings, so, you won’t see a lot of QBs inside my Top 6, etc. listed here. The idea of this post is to give you some deep names that will yield start worthy value and some entrenched starters that should be riding the virtual pine.

Week 6 QB Starts

Tony Romo vs. Washington – This one should seem fairly intuitive, after a 500+ yard effort, but just so that we’re clear: Romo is a very useful fantasy QB, particularly when the matchup is right. This week with the Redskins coming to town and additional depth at WR (Miles Austin comes back) he should deliver another top 5 QB effort. The Redskins give up the 4th most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Robert Griffin III vs. Dallas – … and, Dallas gives up the most. Griffin has been an average, at best, real world QB this season but his fantasy numbers have been very useable. Expect more of the same, coming off the bye. With an extra week’s rest and preparation, Griffin may be more like his old self… but, against Dallas in what could be another high scoring affair, he doesn’t have to be to deliver fantasy profit.

Yes. I'm recommending a slew of Jags against the Broncos in a game they'll lose by double digits. Chad Henne leads the pack at QB13 (Photo: Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports)

Yes. I’m recommending a slew of Jags against the Broncos in a game they’ll lose by double digits. Chad Henne leads the pack at QB13 (Photo: Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports)

Chad Henne vs. Jacksonville – Henne will draw the start for Jacksonville, in what is great news for Justin Blackmon as well as those in need of bye week help at QB. I’m not guaranteeing a top 12 performance, but in a game where he should easily throw the ball north of 40 passes against a defense giving up 347 passing yards per game and 8.8 YPA Henne should deliver a very useful stat line. If you count Nick Foles and Michael Vick as ‘PHI QB’ only one opponent has scored less than 20 fantasy points against the Bronocs defense this year, and Eli Manning showed last night that he’s not all that good, anyway.

Week 6 QB Sits

Colin Kaepernick vs. Arizona – We haven’t seen anything since Week 1 to suggest that Kaepernick is a reasonable start, and with last week’s low volume output he’s hard to trust. While we’ll expect a more competitive game than Houston gave them on the road last week, Kap and co. should continue to lean on Frank Gore in the run game, limiting the QBs fantasy value. He’s a fringe QB1 and nothing more until further notice.

Russell Wilson vs. Tennessee – Another issue with volume, as the Seahawks play at home where Wilson passes considerably less against an opponent that gives up an average of just 11.02 FPPG to the position, holding even rejuvenated fantasy dynamo Philip Rivers to 13 points (his lowest output of the season). The Seahawks should be able to handle the Titans at home, but it won’t be on the strength of a massive passing effort from Wilson.

Week 6 RB Starts

Arian Foster vs. St. Louis – I shared my thoughts with the gang at FantasyPros in their daily games piece, so check that out for further detail but the short answer on Foster is that he’s my number one RB for the week. He gets the ranking for the first time this season based on two easy to understand factors: volume and opponent. He’s had 58 touches over the last two games and has reestablished himself as the dominant horse in the Texans backfield, and the Rams give up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

Le’Veon Bell vs. NYJ – Bell went and took a week off after an impressive debut for the Steelers and while he finds himself in a low end matchup against the Jets his mastery of the goal line TD should make him a useful play. The Jets have held a some decent backs in check this season (Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley, Chris Johnson)  but they gave up three TDs to Falcons RBs on Monday night and are coming off a short week, perhaps down a man or two on defense.

Week 6 RB Sits

C.J. Spiller vs. Cincinnati – He’s had a little extra rest and the prevailing line of thought may be that he ’emerged’ last week against the Browns, but without that 54 yard scamper Spiller had an awful day. His other 7 carries went for 12 yards. I’m not convinced that he’ll see more work than Fred Jackson who has been incredibly productive for the Bills, and as such he’s a dicey play against a Bengals D giving up less than 100 yards per game, 4 yards per carry, and two total rushing touchdowns on the season.

Andre Ellington vs. San Francisco – Last week’s waiver darling was a solid pickup, but as a handcuff/dire straits flex play only. Coach Bruce Arians has acknowledged that he has concerns regarding Ellington’s ability to hold up to a workload any larger than what he’s currently seeing, which means that Rashard Mendenhall is still entrenched as the starter. The 49ers have given up 6 rushing scores this year but 10 touches won’t get you far against them. (Searching for a joke here about money for nothing, chicks for free… installing microwave ovens… help me out in the comments).

Week 6 WR Starts

Justin Blackmon vs. Denver – See my note about Henne, and picture what Blackmon can do on a dozen or so targets against a Broncos D that made Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley (along with Miles Austin and James Witten) valuable fantasy plays in Week 5. Arguably, if Shorts misses this contest it hurts Blackmon as he’ll draw more attention from defenders but with the increased volume that is likely to come his way if Cecil is forced out of this one, it could even benefit the 2nd year man.

Greg Jennings vs. Carolina – Likewise, Jennings sees an upgrade in the QB department with the confirmation that Matt Cassel will draw the start for Minnesota. I spoke in the aftermath of the Vikings’ Week 4 game about not making too much of Jennings’ fantasy day given that most of his scoring game on a short throw that turned into a long scamper and hehad only three receptions against the Steelers, but, you can expect a solid workload and competent QB play coming his way this week which makes Jennings worth a look as a WR3.

Week 6 WR Sits

Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco – Fitzgerald is carrying around the questionable tag this week and is no lock to take the field against the 49ers. Carson Palmer hasn’t passed for more than 300 yards or thrown for multiple TDs since Week 1 so Fitzgerald would have to do all the damage for Arizona this week if he’s expected to be useful. He’s still a WR3 range start mind you, but expectations need to be tempered. Palmer has nine interceptions through five games, including one in every contest and we just saw the 49ers dominate another turnover prone QB so I’m steering clear of Cardinals this week – I’m lower than ECR on Michael Floyd as well.

Marlon Brown vs. Green Bay – Brown is expected to return to the lineup for Baltimore after missing Week 5 but he returns to a considerably more crowded depth chart at WR than when he last saw the field. With Jacoby Jones eyeing a return and Tandon Doss, Deonte Thompson and possible Brandon Stokley looking to suit up as well there might not be enough targets to go around for Brown. He’s averaging 5.25 targets per game this season, but, that number isn’t likely to be sustained much longer.

Week 6 TE Starts

Greg Olsen vs. Minnesota – The Vikings had given up a TD to a TE in every game entering Week 4 against Pittsburgh, and while Heath Miller didn’t score he did produce a useful fantasy line in his second game of the season (6-70). Olsen hasn’t gone below 50 yards this season and has seen at least 6 targets per game (10 last week). Expect Cam Newton to continue to look his way and hope that Olsen can give you a score – if not multiple; both Jordan Cameron (3) and Martellus Bennett (2) have accomplished the feat this season.

Jeff Cumberland vs. Pittsburgh – with news that Dustin Keller has been suspended four games by the NFL (he’ll be even angrier about his playing time this week than he was after Monday Night Football) the TE work belongs to Cumberland. The Steelers have done a nice job against opposing TEs this year, but if you’re looking for a bye-week add, you could do worse than a player coming off a 79 yard, one touchdown performance in the national spotlight.

Week 6 TE Sits

Jared Cook vs. Houston – Cook hasn’t given owners anything useful in the fake game since a huge performance in Week 1 (I remember overreacting at the time, cursing my preseason ranks). Lance Kendricks has outproduced him from a fantasy perspective the last two weeks and seems to be getting the endzone looks from Sam Bradford. I prefer my fantasy TEs to be of the non-timeshare variety, and Cook is working his way toward being on the short end of the stick in St. Louis (Week 5 targets for Kendricks: 6, for Cook: 3).

Week 6 Defenses to Stream

Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland – 16% owned – I’m a semi-believer in Brandon Weeden but the discussion all week has been about his slow decision making in the pocket. Against a Lions front seven that can bring plenty of pressure, that could be a real issue both in term of taking sacks and making poor decisions. Weeden has 20 picks in 18 career games and hasn’t taken less than 5 sacks in a game this season, so, there are plenty of points to be had for the Lions D.

St. Louis Rams vs. Houston – 49% owned – The Rams haven’t been a strong play this year, but, there is no denying Matt Schaub‘s propensity for turning the ball over. The Texans should stick to the ground in this one, and his chances of throwing yet another pick 6 are pretty slim, but, you’d rather own the Rams than some of the other leftover defenses on your waiver wire in the case that they do.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay – 10% owned – We’re picking on a rookie QB here. The Eagles have given up a ton of points this season (147) hurting their fantasy stock, but, while Mike Glennon showed some positive attributes last time out, he remains ill-prepared for life in the NFL. Philly should be able to rattle him, creating turnover opportunities.

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